I mentioned a few days ago that I went to a talk "compèred" by Paul Blomfield, the Labour candidate for the Sheffield Central parliamentary constituency. I later realised that I've also been to a talk by Paul Scriven, the Liberal Democrat candidate for the same constituency. (Yes, they look very similar; no, it's not some evil plan.) I would like to say that Scriven seemed a much better candidate when he spoke, but that's unfair as Blomfield hardly had time to set out his policies or beliefs. I can't honestly compare the two on that basis, and besides it would be just my opinion. It would be better to give an idea of how they're going to fare come the election based on something a little firmer.
Sheffield Central is currently a fairly safe Labour seat held by Richard Caborn, a former Minister of Sport. It ought not be the kind of seat that the Liberal Democrats could really hope to win in an ordinary election, even though the other parties poll so poorly there as to put the Lib Dems as the main and only opposition. At the last election Labour took 50% of the vote, the Lib Dems just over 26%, with the Conservatives the next best at just over 10%. But a number of factors make the seat much more competitive than in 2005, and a strong Lib Dem target for the next election.
The key factor is the boundary redrawing that the whole has Sheffield has undergone since the last election. The number of constituencies in the city has been reduced from six to five, with Hillsborough being abolished and the wards redistributed in a process which led to a general rebalancing of all the constituencies. Sheffield Central previously consisted (more or less) of Burngreave and Manor, which were strongly Labour areas, and Nether Edge and the city centre, which were fairly evenly split between Labour and Lib Dems, with the Greens strong in the city. The local election results from 2006 in these areas reflect reasonably well the general election figures: Labour on 41.3% and Lib Dems on 24%. The main difference is that the Greens took 18.5% of the votes - probably due to the difference between local and general elections and the constraints that voters understand to be present in larger constituencies, but quite important and worth bearing in mind.
However, the new constituency is somewhat different. While the core of the constituency is still the city centre with Manor and Nether Edge, Burngreave has been detached and replaced with Walkley and Broomhill. Both Walkley and Broomhill have pluralities of Lib Dem voters, but with significant Labour and Green support respectively. The most recent local elections in 2008 gave the following results for the areas in the new Sheffield Central constituency: Labour at 36%, Lib Dems at 37%, and Greens at 19%. Support for the Lib Dems appears to be neck and neck with that of Labour.
Of course, local elections aren't general elections, and so much has happened since the local elections a year ago that these numbers can only be taken as a rough idea of the level of support parties might have. But the level of support nationally for the Labour Party has recently dropped significantly, perhaps drastically. Even if Labour support is higher than 18% (which it probably is), it isn't anywhere near 36%. A good portion of those who voted Labour in 2005 simply won't vote for them again, and many of the hardcore of Labour voters will likely stay at home come the general election, disillusioned by the recent expenses scandal and poor government performance but unwilling to vote for another party. Those that do vote may seek out minor parties, principally to the benefit of the Greens and the BNP. The strengthening of the Green vote may make them relatively competitive in this seat, although normally a portion of their local election support can be expected to go to the main parties during a general election due to tactical voting. It's hard to know if this will happen, or whether (perhaps likely in the current poltical atmosphere) they will stick with Green deliberately to avoid the three main parties. Either way, it's unlikely that they be will be able to double their share of the vote and match the level of Lib Dem support, or that their voters will preferentially switch Labour - especially if Labour voters are switching to Green.
The standing of the candidates also suggests that the Lib Dems will get the better outcome here. Though the seat is currently held for Labour by Richard Caborn, he has already announced his intention to step down so lessening the imcumbency effect. Paul Blomfield, his potential replacement, has a reasonably good profile in Sheffield through his current and previous work in the university and city services, but probably not enough to be generally recognizable. In contrast, Paul Scriven has been a city councillor for Broomhill in this constituency for eight years, and in 2008 became the leader of Sheffield City Council. His profile is undoubtedly strong, perhaps greater than some currently sitting MPs. If the general impression among voters of the city council is good (which I think it is, somewhat), this will be an enormous benefit.
So in Sheffield Central it seems that the Lib Dems are starting from a good share of the vote in a newly reorganized constituency, but with the addition of several positive factors in the weakness of their opponents and the profile of their candidate. I am prepared to be shocked if they don't win this seat at the next general election, though I have no hats to eat, sadly.
Sheffield Central is currently a fairly safe Labour seat held by Richard Caborn, a former Minister of Sport. It ought not be the kind of seat that the Liberal Democrats could really hope to win in an ordinary election, even though the other parties poll so poorly there as to put the Lib Dems as the main and only opposition. At the last election Labour took 50% of the vote, the Lib Dems just over 26%, with the Conservatives the next best at just over 10%. But a number of factors make the seat much more competitive than in 2005, and a strong Lib Dem target for the next election.
The key factor is the boundary redrawing that the whole has Sheffield has undergone since the last election. The number of constituencies in the city has been reduced from six to five, with Hillsborough being abolished and the wards redistributed in a process which led to a general rebalancing of all the constituencies. Sheffield Central previously consisted (more or less) of Burngreave and Manor, which were strongly Labour areas, and Nether Edge and the city centre, which were fairly evenly split between Labour and Lib Dems, with the Greens strong in the city. The local election results from 2006 in these areas reflect reasonably well the general election figures: Labour on 41.3% and Lib Dems on 24%. The main difference is that the Greens took 18.5% of the votes - probably due to the difference between local and general elections and the constraints that voters understand to be present in larger constituencies, but quite important and worth bearing in mind.
However, the new constituency is somewhat different. While the core of the constituency is still the city centre with Manor and Nether Edge, Burngreave has been detached and replaced with Walkley and Broomhill. Both Walkley and Broomhill have pluralities of Lib Dem voters, but with significant Labour and Green support respectively. The most recent local elections in 2008 gave the following results for the areas in the new Sheffield Central constituency: Labour at 36%, Lib Dems at 37%, and Greens at 19%. Support for the Lib Dems appears to be neck and neck with that of Labour.
Of course, local elections aren't general elections, and so much has happened since the local elections a year ago that these numbers can only be taken as a rough idea of the level of support parties might have. But the level of support nationally for the Labour Party has recently dropped significantly, perhaps drastically. Even if Labour support is higher than 18% (which it probably is), it isn't anywhere near 36%. A good portion of those who voted Labour in 2005 simply won't vote for them again, and many of the hardcore of Labour voters will likely stay at home come the general election, disillusioned by the recent expenses scandal and poor government performance but unwilling to vote for another party. Those that do vote may seek out minor parties, principally to the benefit of the Greens and the BNP. The strengthening of the Green vote may make them relatively competitive in this seat, although normally a portion of their local election support can be expected to go to the main parties during a general election due to tactical voting. It's hard to know if this will happen, or whether (perhaps likely in the current poltical atmosphere) they will stick with Green deliberately to avoid the three main parties. Either way, it's unlikely that they be will be able to double their share of the vote and match the level of Lib Dem support, or that their voters will preferentially switch Labour - especially if Labour voters are switching to Green.
The standing of the candidates also suggests that the Lib Dems will get the better outcome here. Though the seat is currently held for Labour by Richard Caborn, he has already announced his intention to step down so lessening the imcumbency effect. Paul Blomfield, his potential replacement, has a reasonably good profile in Sheffield through his current and previous work in the university and city services, but probably not enough to be generally recognizable. In contrast, Paul Scriven has been a city councillor for Broomhill in this constituency for eight years, and in 2008 became the leader of Sheffield City Council. His profile is undoubtedly strong, perhaps greater than some currently sitting MPs. If the general impression among voters of the city council is good (which I think it is, somewhat), this will be an enormous benefit.
So in Sheffield Central it seems that the Lib Dems are starting from a good share of the vote in a newly reorganized constituency, but with the addition of several positive factors in the weakness of their opponents and the profile of their candidate. I am prepared to be shocked if they don't win this seat at the next general election, though I have no hats to eat, sadly.
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