Micrographia

I mentioned a few days ago that I went to a talk "compèred" by Paul Blomfield, the Labour candidate for the Sheffield Central parliamentary constituency. I later realised that I've also been to a talk by Paul Scriven, the Liberal Democrat candidate for the same constituency. (Yes, they look very similar; no, it's not some evil plan.) I would like to say that Scriven seemed a much better candidate when he spoke, but that's unfair as Blomfield hardly had time to set out his policies or beliefs. I can't honestly compare the two on that basis, and besides it would be just my opinion. It would be better to give an idea of how they're going to fare come the election based on something a little firmer.

Sheffield Central is currently a fairly safe Labour seat held by Richard Caborn, a former Minister of Sport. It ought not be the kind of seat that the Liberal Democrats could really hope to win in an ordinary election, even though the other parties poll so poorly there as to put the Lib Dems as the main and only opposition. At the last election Labour took 50% of the vote, the Lib Dems just over 26%, with the Conservatives the next best at just over 10%. But a number of factors make the seat much more competitive than in 2005, and a strong Lib Dem target for the next election.

The key factor is the boundary redrawing that the whole has Sheffield has undergone since the last election. The number of constituencies in the city has been reduced from six to five, with Hillsborough being abolished and the wards redistributed in a process which led to a general rebalancing of all the constituencies. Sheffield Central previously consisted (more or less) of Burngreave and Manor, which were strongly Labour areas, and Nether Edge and the city centre, which were fairly evenly split between Labour and Lib Dems, with the Greens strong in the city. The local election results from 2006 in these areas reflect reasonably well the general election figures: Labour on 41.3% and Lib Dems on 24%. The main difference is that the Greens took 18.5% of the votes - probably due to the difference between local and general elections and the constraints that voters understand to be present in larger constituencies, but quite important and worth bearing in mind.

However, the new constituency is somewhat different. While the core of the constituency is still the city centre with Manor and Nether Edge, Burngreave has been detached and replaced with Walkley and Broomhill. Both Walkley and Broomhill have pluralities of Lib Dem voters, but with significant Labour and Green support respectively. The most recent local elections in 2008 gave the following results for the areas in the new Sheffield Central constituency: Labour at 36%, Lib Dems at 37%, and Greens at 19%. Support for the Lib Dems appears to be neck and neck with that of Labour.

Of course, local elections aren't general elections, and so much has happened since the local elections a year ago that these numbers can only be taken as a rough idea of the level of support parties might have. But the level of support nationally for the Labour Party has recently dropped significantly, perhaps drastically. Even if Labour support is higher than 18% (which it probably is), it isn't anywhere near 36%. A good portion of those who voted Labour in 2005 simply won't vote for them again, and many of the hardcore of Labour voters will likely stay at home come the general election, disillusioned by the recent expenses scandal and poor government performance but unwilling to vote for another party. Those that do vote may seek out minor parties, principally to the benefit of the Greens and the BNP. The strengthening of the Green vote may make them relatively competitive in this seat, although normally a portion of their local election support can be expected to go to the main parties during a general election due to tactical voting. It's hard to know if this will happen, or whether (perhaps likely in the current poltical atmosphere) they will stick with Green deliberately to avoid the three main parties. Either way, it's unlikely that they be will be able to double their share of the vote and match the level of Lib Dem support, or that their voters will preferentially switch Labour - especially if Labour voters are switching to Green.

The standing of the candidates also suggests that the Lib Dems will get the better outcome here. Though the seat is currently held for Labour by Richard Caborn, he has already announced his intention to step down so lessening the imcumbency effect. Paul Blomfield, his potential replacement, has a reasonably good profile in Sheffield through his current and previous work in the university and city services, but probably not enough to be generally recognizable. In contrast, Paul Scriven has been a city councillor for Broomhill in this constituency for eight years, and in 2008 became the leader of Sheffield City Council. His profile is undoubtedly strong, perhaps greater than some currently sitting MPs. If the general impression among voters of the city council is good (which I think it is, somewhat), this will be an enormous benefit.

So in Sheffield Central it seems that the Lib Dems are starting from a good share of the vote in a newly reorganized constituency, but with the addition of several positive factors in the weakness of their opponents and the profile of their candidate. I am prepared to be shocked if they don't win this seat at the next general election, though I have no hats to eat, sadly.

Talk, no talk

I attended a talk today at the university. It was part of a series in run up to the EU elections on 4 June and hosted by Eddie Izzard. Even though it was arranged by the Labour student group, I thought I would go because, hey, Eddie Izzard is funny, and I'm pretty interested in politics. I was sure it would at least be funny, and it's good to feel involved in the political process.

The talk was well attended, a real standing room only situation, and despite running a little late, everybody wanted to be there and was willing to wait. When the talk did start though, it was obvious from the beginning just what kind of affair it was going to be. The first person to come up on stage looked a bit uncomfortable, understandably when he introduced himself as the PPC for Sheffield Central, Paul Blomfield. "The Labour student group has asked me to say a few words." Which he did, and really sold himself. I mean, I now know he exists, which is great. His beliefs though? No idea. And why should I? This was meant to be about EU elections, and his presence as compere was not only awkward but damn clumsy.

Moving on, Eddie Izzard eventually appeared after a(n over)long introduction, and did his stuff. Talkig about his own student days at the university, and his political beliefs. And he's funny, real funny, I like him a lot, and I probably agree with most of his views about the EU. This was good, an hour of this would have been great, no doubt, especially had he handled the questions. But it turned out that the format of the talk was actually him handling questions to two guest from the Labour Party. Ack! I never signed up for this! Okay, the guests included Jack Straw (and some random MEP) so I suppose I should be homoured that he bothered to come and answer our questions in person. Who else gets that kind of fabulous treatment?

So, questions start coming, and they seem pretty tame. Considering all the stuff that the Labour government has managed to do in the last 12 years, a bit of sharp questioning would have been welcome. But no, just fairly soft tickling. I suppose people felt a little intimidated it being a Labour do, and there being lots of Labour folks there. That's understandable, I suppose. And there's no surprise that the answers equally tickled the audience without giving us something to grab onto. The guests spoke about their histories in the Labour Party, and how they believed in social justice and doing better for disadvantaged people, and how much they hate Thatcher. Which is nice, but I've heard it so much, so much before. I felt as though this could be anytime between 1997 and 2009, there was nothing new. Nothing they said spoke to me, answered my questions, touched my needs, really made me think, "here's the politics I want to be part of."

I left the talk. It was barely half way through. They can keep my £3 I paid for the ticket, but I'll keep my vote. I wasn't a fan of Labour before going to the talk, but I'm surprised they managed to increase my indifference.